Carolina Panthers: Fantasy Football Projections Week 6

The Carolina Panthers surprised us fans week five with a comeback victory over the Chicago Bears. The Carolina Panthers offense scored at least 30 points for the first time this season. The question is did the Panthers finally figure out how to score? Will this trend continue? 

The Runts of the Cat Litter

The Carolina Panthers have more problems than Jay-Z and his 99 problems. The current state of mind for this team and the fans is the Panthers are not built for an empire. Ok, I am done with the Jay-Z references. The Panthers’ roster is full of players who are both suspended and injured. The 12-4 record from last season is an afterthought, because of all the bad things that keep on happening. The Panthers play the Chicago Bears this week and will have to go to battle with rookies and backups.

The Carolina Panthers Secret Identity

The Carolina Panthers have a secret identity right now and we have no idea what it is. We all know that Cam Newton is Superman and Greg Hardy is (was) “The Kraken.” But, who are the Carolina Panthers? The Panthers have a record of 2-2 after week four of the 2014 NFL season. They are currently in first place in the NFC South and have the fewest points scored against them in the division. The NFC South currently looks like one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, but you have to stay positive right? After seeing the Panthers play four games we still don’t know the identity of this team. Are they playoff worthy? Or will they have a top 10 pick in the next NFL Draft?

My Take On Watching Smitty Going Against Us On Sunday. Who Owes Who What?

All those years when Steve Smith played for us, we defended his temper and his antics.  Friends of mine that are fans of other teams would text me when we played them to tell me that Smitty needed to "shut up and play football."  I always responded by saying how much I loved his passion.  All of those battles with DeAngelo Hall, all of the X-Clown type plays, and all of those "Ice Up Son" moments will forever be etched in his legacy as a Panther.  Without question, he is the greatest Panther to ever play and 89% of me wishes he was able to finish his career here.  He is the Panthers all-time leading receiver with  854 receptions and 12,487 yards and he will always have a special place in my heart.

Carolina Panthers: Fantasy Football Projections Week 4

I really think that this past week was a fantasy. But not a good fantasy because the Pittsburgh Steelers destroyed the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers came into our house and pushed us around, but they didn’t just push us, they ran over us and threw around us. I just hope that when we go visit Steve Smith we show him some southern hospitality. Sorry I had to do some complaining before moving forward.

Could the 2014 Carolina Panthers Beat the 2013 Carolina Panthers?

We all know that Ron Rivera’s job was on the line last year, and I did not even think that he would last the whole season. Well ESPN, the media, and I were all wrong because he was the NFL Coach of the Year. The Carolina Panthers and Ron Rivera surprised everyone with their 12-4 record and their NFC South division title. We all know how the season ended in the NFL Playoffs and we were all disappointed, but also enthusiastic about the future of this team.

Carolina Panthers: Fantasy Football Projections Week 3

Carolina Panthers fans can you believe that we are 2-0? Is your fantasy football team 2-0? If not, you need to change what you’re doing. In order to be successful in fantasy football you need to active. Being active means being the first person to pickup those players that are hot and getting rid of those players that are cold. As the season rolls along you will be able to figure out which players are going to have a good year, breakout year or who you should cut. You will be able to establish this by paying attention their average point total.

Carolina Panthers: Fantasy Football Projections Week 2

Did you win your first fantasy football match up? I hope you did and then bragged all about. I sure did!

I know I am supposed to be talking about fantasy football but I would like to just take a minute to celebrate the Carolina Panthers week one victory. Let’s take our minute now..……….. Alright, it is now time to talk about fantasy football!

Let’s go over my week one projections and see how I did:

Luke Kuechly Protects The “W”

Carolina Panthers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

September 7, 2014

Panthers Win 20-14

Luke Kuechly is not only the best defensive player in the NFL but he is also the best defender when it comes to protecting your house. I know the Carolina Panthers played in Tampa Bay but that CPI commercial is hilarious! I wouldn’t want to get hit by Luke, would you? Josh McCown will be looking over his shoulder when he comes to visit the Panthers in Charlotte on December 14th.

C3 FANatics Open Discussion: Rice Ruling on Hardy's Future

The "FANatics Open Discussion" is a place for Panther fans to direct the discussion.  Just leave a comment a comment below.  If not on Google, you can select to leave your Name/Url.

How will the Rice Ruling weigh on Greg Hardy's future with the Carolina Panthers?

Cam Newton or Andrew Luck? Your Call Panther Nation! Vote

So it seems as though Panther Nation is sensitive to the topic of Cam vs Luck.  I posed the question on Facebook “Would you trade Cam for Luck?”  375 responses later (and counting) I realized that this is not your ordinary Panther topic.  Why does this question resonate?  I can’t speak for all of Panther Nation but I can speak for myself and I can share some of the posts.  Let me know if you agree and then vote for who you think is better, Andrew Luck or Super Cam. 

Then tune in to this website at 10:00 EST on Tuesday July 1 and watch us discuss the results and this topic with two Colts Fans.  One of which is my fellow DraftTek Analyst, Rick McGlothlin.  This is going to be good. 

First, here are some posts from Facebook: 

Round One has the Usual Surprises - Here are the Ones I See

FINALLY the much-hyped first round of the NFL draft is done with! David Gettleman selected Kelvin Benjamin, a very raw but very big talent from last year's national championship team, the FSU Seminoles.

Now, heads turn to rounds 2-3 this evening at 7 pm. Carolina drafts at numbers 2-60 and 3-92 after a wild, strange round one. It seems like every draft, we make our "mocks" which are always ALWAYS wrong, but do serve several purposes: They're informative as to team needs and illustrative of overall thoughts about the talent level of the players involved. There are always some surprises and and some head-scratchers.

Let's take a look at some of the more surprising choices as I see them:

Ron Rivera: Chump or Champ?

29-38-13-7-15-8…the numbers that forged the legend of “Riverboat Ron.”  Rivera’s Powerball jackpot was big. It included a NFC South Championship, a 3-year contract extension, and the slick-ass moniker “Riverboat Ron.” The numbers weren’t random, however. They’re significant. Rivera had played these numbers for three years before hitting his payday.

2-9 (2011 start)

3-8 (2012 start)

1-3 (2013 start)

7-15 in games decided by less than 7 points.

8 game win streak (franchise record) that ended in a 12-4 season, a division title, and a home playoff game in 2013. 

Winning the Powerball jackpot removed the angst of losing for most fans.  It was an electrifying experience. Panther fans huddled around Rivera’s Panthers as they went on a hot streak that would make any Vegas pro jitter with excitement. The hot-streak ended, however, as they all do, in loss. Burned by the river card, Rivera walked away convinced he had made the right play. He was still Riverboat Ron, right?

All professional gamesters experience this defining type moment.  It’s not the hot streak. It’s not the loss. It’s not even that the loss came because of a bad beat. It’s the return to the tables that is the real test of a gambler’s fortitude.  Rivera's 2014 return to the high stakes table will determine his legacy in Carolina. 

Gamblers generally attribute winning to skill rather than luck. Despite their devotion to the numbers, the strategy, the game, there are times when they are reminded that they are still fundamentally games of chance.  In the end, the gambler is always gambling. The gamester can respond to these defining moments in two ways: through instinctual confidence or a developing a festering fear of failure. The burn can either resolve their confidence that chance can be mastered or paralyze them by the fear that chance is not in their favor.

So how will Riverboat Ron respond?  Is he a “chump” or a “champ?”

Would the Panthers Be Dumb to Trade for Morris Claiborne?

Could the scouts have gotten it that wrong? Is Morris Claiborne really a bust?  If he were, it would be one of epic proportions--Weeden-esque even!   

The question looms in Dallas though, as the Cowboys may be testing the trade waters for the former #6 overall pick.  Magnate owner/GM Jerry Jones, who just two years ago described Claiborne as “an elite player by the judgment of our scouts and our coaches,” may accept a 3rd round pick for what to this point has been a disappointment.  

Claiborne was the sexy pick of the 2012 draft.  Cornerbacks were in high demand following Patrick Peterson’s rookie success, and Jerry Jones made the flashy move, dealing a 1st and 2nd round pick to the Rams to get him.

Claiborne seemed a sure bet. Draft experts and fan writers fawned over Claiborne’s ability.  He was thought to be NFL ready--a guy good enough to step in and lock down half the field from day one.  One writer described Claiborne as a “better coverage cornerback” than his former LSU teammate, Patrick Peterson, and as having a skillset that ensured his NFL success.  He had those things that just can’t be taught— speed, size, ball skills, instincts, and intangibles.

And then there was the Wonderlic. Claiborne's 4 out of 50 was the lowest test score recorded at the combine since running back Darren Davis in 2000. The score was so low that it near forced everyone to buy his story that he blew off the test.  Claiborne tried to downplay the episode, stating:

“They say it’s an IQ test. I came to the combine for football. I looked at the test, and wasn’t any questions about football. I didn’t see no point in the test. I’m not in school anymore. I didn’t complete it. I only finished 15 or 18 questions.”

Claiborne wasn't the only one who tried to marginalize the test's predictive value.  "Not to minimize his position," Kiper disclaimed," but this isn't a quarterback, this isn't a middle linebacker, this isn't a guy that needs to memorize a dozen reads. He needs to react."  I’m not sure just how indicative Claiborne’s Wonderlic score is of his foot intelligence or actual intelligence, but it is pretty dumb to think that the test have significance. It did cause a lot of people to point and stare anyway. 

The mental side of the game looks as if it has been a bigger hurdle than the Kiper, Jones, and especially Claiborne expected. Defensive back is typically one of the more difficult positions for guys to adjust to when they get to the pros.  Not only are cornerbacks matched against the most opponents most athletic player, when they get burned it stands out. Seahawk secondary coach, Paul Moyer, summarized the difficulties athletic corners often have transitioning to the NFL, stating:

"you can get away with using them. The guys who are gifted physically but maybe weren't great players in college and are a little slower learning - those guys struggle. They're the projects - the track guys who just have speed."

Add an endless string of injuries to the mix, (head, shoulder, wrist, and ankle...make sure you sing this to the head, shoulder, knees, and toes tune) and less than stellar play on the field, and you have a mighty expensive project on your hands.

Photo Credit:  The Boys are Back

Claiborne has underperformed at best to this point, and, at the least, just plain struggled in Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 defense. Some have suggested that this system isn't suited for Claiborne's skill set, but after two difficult season even those excuses are running thin. Claiborne quickly lost his starting job midway through 2014 after being burned by San Diego Charger rookie wideout, Keenan Allen, who accumulated 80 yards in just 3 catches.

In fairness, Claiborne wasn't the only one who struggled in Dallas last season.  The Cowboys' defense ranked among the league's worst in every statistical category.  Everyone seemed to be a poor fit in Kiffin's old school defense.  

So, would it be dumb for the Carolina Panthers to trade the 92nd pick for   a guy that hasn’t shown a ton of promise yet? No. It wouldn’t be dumb, it would be high value trade that could just pay dividends for the Panthers.

Before we get into the logistics, let’s go ahead and get it out of the way...Don’t front like you didn’t want him bad in 2012! I’ll admit it. He was the guy I was hoping would somehow slip to the Panthers.  I knew it really wasn’t going to happen, but I wanted it to. I was secretly jealous of Cowboy fans experienced when their team made the big draft splash.

The Kuechly selection was a phenomenal pick that demonstrated Hurney’s knack for great 1st round picks and his canny ability to evaluate linebacker talent. Admit it, few saw the Panthers going after a middle linebacker in the 1st round, however. Most of us at the time, myself included, thought Beason was going to be the Panther mainstay in the middle. Hindsight is 20/20 though, and we can all celebrate the Golden Boy, Luke Kuechly and be thankful we weren’t the 0nes that traded the 1st and 2nd for Claiborne.

There are four reasons that the Carolina Panthers should trade a 3rd round pick for Claiborne.

1.      Moyer’s comments above apply particularly well to Claiborne. He was much more of a project than Dallas had expected. He’s had a tough time acclimating to the pros after a college career where he relied more on athleticism than skill. He then landed on a dysfunctional team that needed him to be superstar from the get go. Now this isn’t really too much to expect from a 6th round pick that you just sacrificed 1st and 2nd round picks, but it clearly was a little more than Claiborne could handle. The stage may just have been a little too big for the rookie, and the team too dysfunctional to nourish the rookie’s development.

2.                The Mike Mitchell Model: Claiborne’s situation is slightly reminiscent of Mike Mitchell’s in Oakland. Both were athletically talented guys who still needed development While Mitchell was wasn’t the high profile, top-ten pick Claiborne was, he also found himself on a dysfunctional team that has nourished anything but development for the last decade.  

Carolina is a place where guys like Claiborne can thrive. Mitchell, who has now proven himself as a starter, was also deemed a bust prior to arriving in Carolina. The Panthers have the structure that guys like Mitchell and Claiborne can develop.  The coaching staff coaxes a lot out of a little, and that dominant front seven doesn’t leave the secondary on that proverbial island too often. If the corners do find themselves on that island, they don’t have to stay there too long when the Kraken and Charles Johnson are prowling.

3.                Great Value: A 3rd for the #6th overall, not bad! Given the Panthers needs at other positions, many don’t think they will look to address the secondary until the 3rd round anyway. Will there be a corner at #92 in this year’s draft that has the potential Claiborne does? It’s possible, but not likely.

Claiborne is scheduled to make about 4.35 million dollars this year.  Now assuming the Panthers would have to pick up his contract that would be a significant amount against the cap, and we all know the Panthers are “cap challenged.”  Claiborne only has two years left on his contract, so the bet wouldn’t be long term.  The Panthers could essentially land a top talent for 3rd round money.

4.                Wouldn’t have to be a superstar:  Even if Claiborne didn’t turn out to be the next Patrick Peterson, he has the tools to be serviceable. I know everyone loved how great Captain Munnerlyn played last year, but he is 5’8.  Can you really match this guy up against a big bodied, fast receiver?  Do you want to see Melvin White on that island against Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson (yes, we play Detroit next year)?  Would it be better to field a 3rd round draft pick, who will have a guaranteed learning curve?  Claiborne has the tools to be effective, particularly in man coverage.  He has the size and speed to get it done if supported by a strong defense.  He wouldn’t need to be a superstar, he would just need to contribute.  Carolina’s front seven may help him look like one though, they did it for Munnerlyn anyway.

It all comes back to the Wonderlic I guess in the end.  Did Claiborne get caught up in the hype and glamor of 2012 draft and simply blow off the Wonderlic test entirely, or is he functionally illiterate?  I’m not sure if it should qualify as a smart trade for the Panthers, but you would think it would have to be a least a 15 out of 50 type move.

Are Panther Fans Ready to Believe?

Are Panther Fans Ready to Believe?

In making a wild card run?  Winning the NFC South ? Going deep into the playoffs? Stranger things have happened.  I mean if the Panthers can get above .500, the sky's the limit right?

Few Panther fans have thought that far forward, however.  We are still trying to understand this feeling of....well...having something to play for.  While we finished strong last season, it was clear that it was too little too late.  The fans knew it; the players knew it; the coaching staff knew it.  Perhaps that's why they finished strong--no pressure.

Fan commentary in social media indicates a hesitant optimism among Panther fans.  Winning big on Thursday night against the Bucs has uplifted fan spirits, but fans are still afraid of getting burned.

Going back to the six turnover playoff game against the Cardinal's in 2009 turned the ball over a mere seven times.  We thought it can't get any worse, but then he turned it over six times in the season opener the following year.

Then there was the 2-14 season, and the first pick the following year--Cam Newton.  Fans were divide over Cam, many believing we should have drafted Patrick Peterson instead.  Cam exploded on the scene generating national attention and an optimistic fanbase.

The next year, many called for the Panthers to win the division (I was one of them).  Then 2012 happened. We looked terrible.  Cam fell out of favor with the national media as they jumped the bandwagon  over Russell Wilson and RGIII.  The Panthers finished strong, but nothing that created great optimism for Carolina fans.

And then this year happened.  Another terrible start, opening 1-3.  Fans called for Rivera's head, and the Arizona loss suggested we should start looking for a new coaching staff and focus on the draft.

Oh but ripping off  three consecutive wins, even if they were against the league's worst teams, changes things so quickly. Admit it, winning feels good--strange, but good.  You want to feel it again, but you don't want to let yourself once again naively believe in the Panthers.

Here are a few reasons that may help you believe:

1. Wildcard Within Reach- The Panthers are in the wildcard hunt. If the playoffs started today, we are tied with Detroit and Chicago for the second wild card spot.  The 49ers, who are currently 5-2, would get a bid in the bracket.  Two things are favorable about this situation:  
•  We are on the uptick and the NFC North is not.  The NFC North is up for grabs between 3 (GB, Chi, Det) teams with winning records.  The Bears lost Cutler.  The Lions are always underachievers, and Green Bay, currently leading the division, is physically falling apart.
•  We get to play current wildcard leader 49ers.  This is the biggest game for us outside of the two we play against the Saints.  
2. Rivera May Prove Us Wrong- Panther fans called for Rivera's head after losses to Buffalo and Arizona.  Rivera stayed annoyingly cool, exactly what a head coach of a talented, underperforming team needs to do.  Amidst the panic, he continued to coach up a formidable defense that positions the Panthers for success.
3. Offense Turning a Corner- Rivera was not the only one feeling the heat.  Both offensive coordinator Mike Shula and quarterback Cam Newton received criticism. Shula, however, may have just figured out the Cam Newton success formula: establish him as a run threat early.  This has worked, and allowed Cam to flourish as a passer, averaging a 79% pass completion rate in the last three games.
4. An Emerging Elite Defense- The Panthers defense has been quietly awesome. GM Gettleman looks brilliant for drafting Kwan Short and Star Lotulelei.  Hats of to the quietly successful defensive coordinator, Sean McDermott, who has coached up a stingy defense that allows on average 13 points per game on average.  Even with a young, piecemeal, unsettling secondary, McDermott utilized his strong front seven to mask their vulnerabilities.

The Reason to Believe: The Panthers are starting to believe in themselves.

The fans may not be ready to let their emotional guard down yet, but the Panther players may be.  Winners believe that they are going to win.  The Panthers haven't had a winning mentality for years.  That's why people have advocated for Rivera's firing, questioned Cam Newton's ability, and most apparently the Panthers constant squandering of winnable games. 

But now we are seeing what we have all wanted to be seeing--Cam smiling and Rivera screaming.  It may be becoming safe to BELIEVE.

Comment or retweet if you are starting to BELIEVE

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Panthers' Defense Climbs Towards #1 Ranking

Panthers' Defense Climbs Towards #1 Ranking

Earlier this week, I wrote a piece titled "Does Carolina have the NFL's Best Defense?" The piece did not argue that the Panthers defense was the NFL's best, but instead that they were quietly playing lights out and should be considered a top 3 NFL defense.

While the stats have been impressive, fans have still been weary to get behind Carolina's defense as dominate.

Once again though, the the Panthers defense punished a team into submission, holding the Bucs to 13 points. The Panthers defense seems to bend a bit every game, but never break.

Carolina's stingy defense has allowed on average only 13 points per game.  Even when everything seemed to suggest that the Bucs were going to get a late score, the defensive stars and planets came into alignment for the Panthers.  The Bucs recovered an onside kick. Davis was flagged for a personal foul, which Rivera went insane over.  Right when the Bucs seemed poised to score, Big $$ Charles Johnson forced Tampa into a long field goal situation.  The Bucs kicker then hit the field goal to put them at 16 pts, but the Panthers received  a ticky tack penalty that resulted in an automatic first down.

As fate would have it, the Panthers held the Bucs to 13pts--preserving their impressive 13 points allowed average.

Tonight's Panther defense allowed 275 yards in the air and 48 on the ground (323 yds total).  Currently, sitting at #3 in yards allowed, the Panthers ranking can only improve.

If the Seahawks and Chiefs lose this week, will the Panthers' defense be the NFL's best defense?

Statistically, they just might be.  Prior to tonight, the Panthers defense was ranked #2 in points allowed per game.  Tonight's fortune will likely propel them to a #1 ranking in this category by Monday.

The Panthers may just now be believing in themselves.

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Are the Carolina Panthers the NFL's Best Defense?

Are the Carolina Panthers the NFL's Best Defense?

Had we beaten the Seahawks, the question wouldn’t be totally absurd. Panther fans should savor the defensive flavor presented in the following statistical breakdown.

OK, OK, so you may not be ready to go that far, Panther fans can celebrate a top #5 overall defense and the #1 defense in the NFC.

The eye test does not always make the Panther fan ready to leap to the defense of the Panthers’ defensive honor in the sports banter world, the stats suggest, however, we can at least when arguing with fans of divisional rivals.

Here is a quick breakdown of Carolina’s overall NFL defensive rankings in comparison with their closet NFC categorical competitor.

Defensive Stat	Panther Ranking (NFL Overall )	NFC South Top Closest Opponent Ranking (NFLOverall)
Yards Per Game	3	11 (Saints)
Points Allowed per game	2	4 (Saints)
Passing (YPG)	5	9 (Saints)
Rushing (YPG)	4	5 (Tampa)
3rd Down Stop %	15	8 (Saints)
Interceptions	6	10 (Saints)

I’m not ready to say that this defense has the chops of of the Peppers, Rucker, Morgan, and Witherspoon era, but this is a solid group that could become that elite defense next year--given we can hold onto Gregg Hardy.

The bright spots:

• Luke Kuechly- Tackling machine and potentially the most instinctive defensive player since Ray Lewis.  
• Defensive Line- Big Money and Hardy are tough on the outside, while Star and Short appear both to be capable of becoming elite tackles.
• Bend but not Break- The Panthers defense is has not emerged as an intimidating foe.  Mediocre offenses have moved the ball on Carolina, but the defense has clearly kept Carolina in ball games.  Ranked 2nd overall in points allowed per game, Carolina’s point stingy defense allows on average 13 points per game.

The irritated eye test:

We see glimmer of hope with this bunch, but 3rd down, the red zone, and the fourth quarter consistently disappoint.  These are categories that count--a lot. Teams seem to move the ball at the worst times.  Is this because we are young in the secondary and lack a deep defensive rotation on the line and behind the linebackers?

Seattle, Buffalo, Arizona--enough said.  All beat us down the stretch.  All games we should have won.  Is this all on the defense?  Seattle and Buffalo were. You can say the Williams fumble was the problem in the opener, but Russell Wilson killed the Panthers.

There is good news, however. We can easily improve these less impressive defensive statistical categories.  Strangely, this will have to happen on the other side of the ball.  Extended drives and an effective run game will keep defense rested and create less of the situations in the long-run.

Just think Panther nation, in week four we were considering a coaching change and looking to the draft.

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